Information Bulletin
Population and Migration Study
Population Change and Impact on Shetland
A population study is underway to determine Shetland’s population change, migration and emigration patterns.
The population of Shetland was 21,988 in 2001. Since 1931, the only demonstrable increase in the Shetland census results occurred in 1981, when the population had risen by over 30% since the previous census, where the rise can be attributed to new economic opportunities associated with the oil industry. In the last 20 years, the population has declined by 3%. Since the 2001 Census, the General Register Office for Scotland (GROS) have estimated that the population levels in Shetland have remained relatively stable, with the latest 2006 mid-year estimates showing the population at 21,880.
In addition to a lack of overall population growth, one of the main issues in Shetland may be centralisation of population – out-migration from rural and island areas to areas within a 20 minute or so commute of Lerwick.
The GROS have estimated for Shetland that in 20 years time there will be approx 2,175 more individuals aged 65+ an increase of 9.9%, yet a predicted 4,562 decline in the working age population, that’s a 20.9% decline.
Each of the agencies in Shetland has identified population growth as one of the key priority areas for policy direction. It is clear that more people living, working and studying in Shetland is essential to sustaining communities and the economy in the long-term. Yet we do not have at present conclusive evidenced data relating to specific population trends within Shetland. Therefore this study will be a valuable piece of research, which will assist local service agencies in responding appropriately to the challenges posed by demographic trends in Shetland.
Shetland Islands Council, in partnership with HIE Shetland, NHS Shetland, Communities Scotland and Shetland Community Economic Development Trust have commissioned detailed research into demographic changes in Shetland. This study is designed to establish how the population in Shetland, and in different areas of Shetland, is changing; to make projections to 2030; and to develop a model for predicting population change in the Islands.
SIC Councillor Laura Baisley, member of the Population study steering group, states
“ I welcome this study, it will be a very useful piece or research for Shetland as a whole and its rural communities. I am looking forward to following the progress and seeing the final results”
There will be a series of methods used for collecting the data throughout Shetland, for instance an Employers Survey and an Islanders Survey will be used in the form of an electronic survey. The electronic survey of employers will be used to gather an economic perspective on issues around population within Shetland. This will identify the extent to which Shetland businesses depend on a stable or growing population for their workforce and market development. It will also identify the extent to which businesses are turning to a migrant labour force to address the hard to fill vacancies.
The electronic survey of current and former residents of Shetland will be carried out to provide more robust figures surrounding barriers and motivations. Specifically focusing on,
- People leaving the island (e.g. for work/education)
- Those who remain in Shetland
- Economic in migrants
- Lifestyle in migrants
- Those who choose to return to Shetland (e.g. from mainland education)
The survey will be delivered by sending out an electronic link through existing email networks and also through posting the survey link on prominent Shetland websites such as that of the Shetland Island Council and The Shetland News website. The links can be forwarded on through these networks to other people in the target group to maximise the response rate. Hall Aitken have recently produced a population Study for the Outer Hebrides and a similar approach there achieved 1,600 responses over a four week period.
A wide range of focus groups and public consultations will also take place throughout the Shetland Islands to ensure all Shetland Citizens have an opportunity to be heard. Written submissions will be accepted to ensure that all Shetlanders are included, pre paid envelopes will be included.
Press release ends…