Shetland Islands Council

Population and Housing

Topic Goal

To promote a pattern of development which reflects the aspirations of the Shetland public, minimises the impact on the environment and maintains the viability and vitality of existing settlements throughout the Islands, where community facilities already exist

Population

13.1 Shetland's usually resident population fell by 4% between 1981 and 1991 to 22,522; however, the pattern was not uniform. The populations of areas in the South and Central Mainland remained relatively stable or grew, but those in the North Mainland and the North Isles significantly decreased. Shetland's population continues to decline with net out-migration at significantly higher levels than net in-migration. Forecasting the population for a relatively small community such as Shetland is particularly difficult as migration rates, one of the key variables, can be so volatile. Recent population projections indicate that the population will fall possibly significantly below 22,000 by the year 2011. On this basis most of Shetland's communities are likely to experience population decline up to the year 2011 with the exception of some communities within easy commuting distance of Lerwick. Retaining population in a community is seen as essential in order to underpin the viability of local services including schools and shops. Population decline is only likely to be reversed if additional job opportunities are created and/or many existing employees have more certainty over the long-term future of their jobs.

Housing Need

13.2 Despite the fact that Shetland's population decreased by 4% between 1981 and 1991, the number of households increased by just over 7%. This increase was due to a reduction in Shetland's average household size from 3.0 to 2.6 persons per household, a trend which is expected to continue. The Shetland-wide increase in the number of households concealed a wide geographical variation across Shetland from a 19% increase in households in areas close to Lerwick and a decrease of 21% in northern areas. By making assumptions about the size of future households it is possible to project the number of future households. The rate of decline was significant in Shetland between 1981 and 1991, but on the basis of recent General Register Office for Scotland (GROS) population estimates and Scottish Office household projections, the rate appears to have slowed down appreciably in the last few years. An estimate of actual housing need, having made an allowance for replacement dwellings, second homes and holiday homes, is given below in Table 13.1:-

Table 13.1

13.3 When these projected figures are disaggregated into sub-areas, the figures suggest that the greatest demand for housing is likely to occur in the commuting areas around Lerwick, although a significant level of housing need is also projected for the rest of Mainland.

13.4 One factor which can distort projected housing need calculations is the extent of commuting. Available information suggests that commuting is significant and increasing. From at least the early 1970s concern has been expressed about the growth of commuting and its possible impact on settlement patterns and the viability of rural communities. Analysis of housing waiting lists (both the Council's and Hjaltland Housing Association's) also confirm that Lerwick and the surrounding communities are the preferred location for most people. The continuing concentration of population, jobs and services around Lerwick is a cause for concern, the strategy proposed will seek to address this imbalance by encouraging development to support existing settlements throughout Shetland and the communities they support. The Council must develop a co-ordinating role to provide an integrated housing service, ensuring that the different partners and agencies involved in housing are aware of housing needs, the role they can play in meeting those needs and the support and guidance the Council can give.

Housing Stock

13.5 The Council's Housing Plan estimates that in 1996 the total permanent housing stock was in the order of 9,080 housing units, of these slightly more than 50% were owner occupied. The Council owned 30% of the stock, but this total has now been reduced to 22% as a result of 'right to buy' legislation. The condition of the housing stock is generally good. A total of fewer than 430 properties are currently Below Tolerable Standard with only 1% of homes lacking basic amenities. The Council recognises the need to maintain and improve Shetland's housing stock, within both the private and public housing sectors. It will evaluate the twin objectives of providing affordable housing and eradicating its housing debt by means of stock transfer under the government's "New Housing Partnership" concept. The Council recognises that its role in meeting housing need can no longer be defined in terms of how many new houses can be built each year, to one of strategy and enabling.

Affordable Housing

13.6 The Council owns and manages sheltered housing throughout Shetland. The distribution of properties does not necessarily reflect the distribution of the elderly population. Compared with the overall age profile of the Highlands and Islands, Shetland has a greater proportion of the population in the younger age groups. One of the issues facing Shetland regarding the provision of housing, is how to ensure the adequate supply of affordable housing for the younger population. The number of homeless applications made can give an indication of the pressure on the housing stock and unmet housing need. As with the majority of rural authorities in Scotland, Shetland has experienced an increase in the number of homeless presentations. Difficulties with homelessness tend to be centred around Lerwick, with almost half of all applications originating from there, if the areas surrounding Lerwick are included, the figure rises to 64%.

New Houses

13.7 The average number of house completions throughout Shetland between 1939 and 1971 was 12 dwellings per annum. With the coming of the oil industry this rose to a high of around 300 per annum in 1975. Over the past decade completion rates have ranged from 83 -146 new dwellings, the majority of which have been constructed in Lerwick and the surrounding areas. With such a wide range of building rates, predicting future trends is difficult, although a figure near the bottom of the range, of around 90 or fewer new dwellings per year can be assumed. If this figure is set against the number of permissions granted, the Shetland-wide supply of land with planning permission for new houses would last for about five years. The number of new house completions varies widely, but is on average generally 30% less than the number of planning permissions granted. This may indicate that individuals are securing permissions for the future or that a certain number of speculative applications are being made, particularly in the areas surrounding Lerwick. The potential fragility of the Shetland economy, the declining population and the concentration of job opportunities and new house building in the areas around Lerwick means negative equity is a real prospect in many areas.

Development Pattern

13.8 The traditional pattern of housing in Shetland stems from the fishing and crofting way of life. This pattern of development runs counter to the long-established national policy of restraint on new development in the open countryside. Recently however, opinion is changing to the view that the national policy of restraint on development in the countryside is unduly restricting development in rural areas. In Shetland, although it may appear that the houses have no central focus, there is a strong sense of community identity within rural areas. Recent surveys have found that if people are moving house, they seem to aspire to stay in their existing community. Of those who had recently moved house, more than half had moved less than 5 miles away from their previous address. The strategy proposed in the Structure Plan will encourage communities to prosper, by establishing a zonal framework and related policies which direct new housing development to established settlements and settled countryside.

Modern energy-efficient housing, Norrendal, Whalsay (Photograph: Hjaltland Housing Association)

Partners

Strategies

Plan Performance Indicators

• Social housing provision as a proportion of total completions.
• The number of planning applications for new dwellings approved contrary to the zoning policies.
• The proportion of planning applications for new dwellings in each of the four zones as a percentage of the total number of applications for new houses.